A Case Study: How do I choose the best bet?
Sports betting has grown exponentially in popularity over the last decade, evolving from a privileged activity into a mainstream pastime with millions of enthusiasts worldwide. Whether you’re an experienced bettor or a novice, understanding how to bet on sports effectively is crucial to maximizing your chances of success. This blog will guide you through the process of sports betting by providing key information, and using a real-world case study of a specific player and sport. We’ll delve into the statistics that matter, the strategies for making calculated bets, and how to leverage platforms like ESPN, DraftKings, Hudl and more to enhance your betting decisions.
Before diving into the case study, it’s essential to grasp the basics of sports betting. Knowing the different types of bets and how they work is the foundation upon which successful betting strategies are built.
Moneyline Bets:
A moneyline bet is the most straightforward type of wager in sports betting. You’re simply betting on which team will win the game. For example, if you believe the Detroit Lions will win their upcoming game, you place a bet on their moneyline. If the Lions win, you win your bet.
Point-Spread Bets:
Point-spread betting is about predicting the margin of victory. The sportsbook sets a spread(a number set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two teams and drive betting action on both sides), and you place a bet on whether the favorite will win by more than the spread or if the underdog will win outright or lose by less than the spread. The favorite is indicated with a minus sign (-) before the point spread, while the underdog is indicated with a plus sign (+).
For instance, if a team is priced at -10, they are favored to win by 10 or more points. If they win by 10 or more points, you win the bet. On the other hand, that team’s opponent would be priced at +10, meaning they need to win the game outright or lose by less than 10 points for your bet to be successful.
Let’s look at a real life example. Today is Sunday, September 8th 2024, and on one of the major sportsbook there is a spread for the Denver Broncos vs the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL: The Seattle Seahawks are priced at -6.5, meaning that they are the favorites and need to win by 6.5 points or more points, or win the game outright. On many of these websites, they give an expert prediction, outlining why you should pick this bet. It is important that you have a strong knowledge of both these teams before blindly selecting one or the other.
Over/Under Bets:
Also known as totals, over/under bets involve wagering on whether a specific statistic (like total points scored) will be over or under a predetermined value set by the sportsbook. For example, you might bet on whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will score more than 26.5 points in a game. If he scores 27 points or more, the over wins the bet; if he scores 26 or fewer, the under wins.
Parlay Bets:
Parlays are combination bets that link two or more individual bets into a single wager. To win a parlay, all the individual bets, or "legs," must win. While parlays are riskier than single bets, they offer the potential for higher payouts, making them more attractive to users. This is because the payout increases with each additional leg, allowing bettors to wager a small amount of money for the chance to win a significant sum.
Understanding these types of bets is the first step in becoming a knowledgeable sports bettor. Each type offers different levels of risk and reward, and the key is to know which one aligns best with your strategy and risk tolerance. In the next sections, we’ll build on this knowledge by analyzing how to select the right player or field to focus on, and how to use statistics to make informed betting decisions.
In this blog, we will analyze three different players from three different sports to understand how to make successful wagers. For this case study, we’ve selected three of the most influential and statistically rich athletes in their respective sports: Patrick Mahomes from the NFL, Lionel Messi from soccer(fútbol), and Giannis Antetokounmpo from the NBA. Each of these players not only dominates their sport but also offers unique betting opportunities across various markets. By analyzing their performances, we can gain valuable insights into how to use statistics, trends, and other key factors to make smarter betting decisions. This section will introduce each of these athletes and explore why they are ideal candidates for a deep dive into sports betting strategies.
Patrick Mahomes (NFL, Quarterback)
Patrick Mahomes has redefined the quarterback position in the NFL with his combination of athleticism, arm strength, and football IQ. As the captain of the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes consistently puts up impressive numbers, making him enticing for bettors. His ability to perform under pressure, along with his ability to create explosive plays, makes him an ideal subject for analyzing point-spread bets, player props, and overall game outcomes. With Mahomes, every game is a potential betting opportunity, whether it’s predicting his passing yards, touchdowns, or even his ability to lead a comeback.
This past season, Mahomes led the Chiefs to their third Super Bowl in four years, establishing the Chiefs as a dynasty in today’s NFL. Since 2018, Mahomes has been one of the most popular faces of the NFL, throwing 28,000 yards & 219 touchdowns this time. He has won the regular season MVP twice and the Super Bowl MVP three times and thas been voted the number one player in the NFL twice. He has set the record for the most passing touchdowns in a single season, showcasing his ability to create scoring opportunities. Mahomes has also shattered records for passing yards in a single game, highlighting his exceptional arm strength and decision-making, as he also has the highest career passing rating in NFL history.
Due to all of this data, we can already tell that betting on Patrick Mahomes is a safe choice. In the 2023 season, Mahomes was a very popular choice among bettors in three different areas. Mahomes was bet most on individual props, such as passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards. He was also one of the favorites to win the regular season MVP, and was betted by a large majority of the NFL fans. Finally, as the Chiefs were the reigning Super Bowl champs, many bettors wagered on their Super Bowl success, and in turn, Mahomes being the Super Bowl MVP. As we can see, Mahomes was a very popular choice for the most standard types of bets. Why could this be the case? Because Mahomes and the Chiefs are considered to be the most consistent bets in the NFL, and can assure bettors that they make their money back.
Now, imagine that we are in the middle of the NFL season and we come upon an Over/Under bet asking whether Patrick Mahomes would throw over or under 275.5 yards in this week’s match. Now, the first thing that we would need to do is look at how he has done in the last few weeks of the season. For instance, if in the past three games, he has thrown over 300 yards, it would be safe to say that his chances of throwing over 300 yards for the fourth game in a row is high. Therefore, we can be sure that if we were to bet our money on Mahomes, we would not have a terrible lose. However, this is just the first step in analyzing bets. Imagine if the Chiefs were facing the Cowboys or the 49ers, two of the strongest defensive teams in the league. Well in that case, we would need to see how Mahomes has performed against them in previous seasons. If Mahomes has not had exceptional games in the past, it would be hard to say that this time around he will have a really good game. Therefore, that bet might not be the best in that case. But if the Chiefs were facing a team such as the Jaguars, with a mediocre defense, then that bet becomes even stronger than before. Remember, it is more important to see if a bet will lose you money over if it will multiply your money.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (NBA, Power Forward/Center)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, or the “Greek Freak”, is one of the most dominant players of today’s game and arguably one of the most dominant players of all time. His unique combination of strength, speed, and skill makes him one of the most deadliest players on the court. Over the last 10 seasons he has been in the league, Giannis has won an NBA championship, NBA Finals MVP, two regular-season MVP’s, two DPOY’s and has eight all-star selections. Giannis’ versatility and consistent performance make him a favorite in the betting community, particularly for player props like points, rebounds, and assists. His ability to take over games and influence outcomes makes him an excellent case study for exploring how individual player stats can guide betting decisions in basketball.
In the last six seasons, he has cemented himself as one of the best players in the league, and it doesn’t look like he will stop anytime soon. He has averaged over 27 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists during this six-year span, ranking him in the top 5 of the NBA every single year. Giannis’s consistency, along with his drive to stay at the top of the league every season has made him a force of nature that should not be messed with. Therefore, it is best to bet on a player this committed, as it will ensure that your bet succeeds.
Now, let's consider an over/under prop bet for Giannis Antetokounmpo, asking if he will grab over 9.5 rebounds. Given that Giannis is one of the top rebounders in the NBA, this bet initially seems promising. However, we need to take several factors into account. First, we should analyze who the Bucks are playing and Giannis' matchups. Next, we need to see the starting lineup for the Bucks. If Brook Lopez was to start at the center position, who grabs a significant share of rebounds, could limit Giannis' rebounding opportunities. On the other hand, if Bobby Portis starts, Giannis might have more chances to dominate the boards. Additionally, every player on the court can impact a player's rebound total. If the Bucks are up against a team with strong rebounding frontcourt players (power forward and center), Giannis’ chances of collecting offensive and defensive boards decrease. However, if they’re playing a small-ball team with undersized players, his chances improve significantly. These small, intricate details can make or break your prop bet, and experienced bettors know that analyzing them is key to multiplying their winnings.
Lionel Messi(Soccer, Forward)
Lionel Messi is not only a football player, he is a global sensation who’s impact on the football field over the last two decades has been unmatched. After a stellar career in Europe, Messi's move to Major League Soccer has only increased his appeal in the betting world. Known for his goal-scoring expertise, playmaking abilities, and consistency, Messi is a prominent candidate for various betting markets, including match outcomes, goal totals, and player-specific props. His influence on the game is so profound that his presence alone can shift betting odds, making him an essential part of any sports betting strategy.
Since his debut in 2003, Lionel Messi has solidified his status as one of the greatest soccer players of all time through his consistency and brilliance. Over the course of his illustrious career, Messi has scored over 800 career goals for club and country, including more than 700 for FC Barcelona, showcasing his extraordinary goal-scoring ability. Alongside his goals, he has provided more than 350 assists, demonstrating his exceptional playmaking and vision on the field. His talent for delivering in high-stakes matches is further highlighted by his 56 career hat-tricks, including 36 in La Liga, and his remarkable tally of 60+ free-kick goals. Messi has also won the coveted Ballon d'Or award 8 times, more than any other player in history, underscoring his dominance across nearly two decades. Having played in over 1,000 professional matches, Messi’s enduring excellence and consistency have made him a reliable force in every game, whether at the club or international level. His combination of technical skill, football intelligence, and game-changing ability cements his legacy as one of the greatest players ever to grace the sport.
When betting on a player like Lionel Messi, sports analytics can be a game-changer in making smart, data-driven bets. Messi’s career statistics reveal key trends that can be used to enhance betting success. For example, Messi’s 800+ goals tally over 1,000+ games,a goal-per-game ratio of 0.79, can give us enough information in itself to say that the chances of Messi scoring on any given night is pretty high. Because he scores in nearly 8 out of every 10 games, this makes him a strong candidate for bets like anytime goalscorer or first goal scorer in matches, especially in leagues where he’s dominant, such as his recent move to Major League Soccer. In addition, Messi’s record of 56 hat-tricks shows that he has a high potential to score multiple goals in a single game, which can be used in multi-goal bets, particularly when facing lower-tier teams or in critical and important matches where Messi thrives.
What should I analyze?
When it comes to sports betting, analyzing both traditional statistics and advanced performance metrics is essential for making informed best. For players like Patrick Mahomes, Lionel Messi, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, key stats such as points per game, yards gained, or shooting percentage provide a solid foundation for understanding their impact on any given match. However, deeper insights can be gained through advanced metrics. In the NBA, for instance, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) gives a comprehensive view of a player's overall contributions, while the NFL’s Quarterback Rating (QBR) breaks down a quarterback’s performance beyond just passing yards or touchdowns, factoring in the difficulty of plays and the context of the game. For a player like Messi, metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) provide a predictive measure of how many goals he should have scored based on shot quality and location. To access these insights, platforms like ESPN, NBA.com, and NFL.com are invaluable resources, offering up-to-date stats and advanced analytics. Bettors can use these platforms to quickly find relevant data on player performance, matchup history, and trends, making it easier to place well-informed bets backed by comprehensive statistical analysis.
Spotting betting opportunities starts with identifying trends in the data. For example, tracking a player like Messi during a hot streak—such as a series of games where he’s consistently scoring—can help you decide when to place a bet on him to score or assist. Similarly, spotting favorable matchups, like Giannis Antetokounmpo playing against a team with weak interior defense, can present a strong chance for over/under bets on his points or rebounds. When looking at betting lines and odds, it’s crucial to understand that these reflect public perception as much as they do actual probability. If a betting line favors Mahomes and the Chiefs by a wide margin, it might still offer value depending on his recent form or potential injuries on the other team. Strategies like betting early to get better odds, diversifying bets across multiple markets (e.g., player props and game outcomes), and managing your wager sizes can increase your chances of long-term success.
What is the best application to use for sports betting?
Once you've identified a strong betting opportunity, the next step is choosing the right sportsbook. Look for reputable platforms that offer competitive odds and a user-friendly interface. A sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel might offer better player prop odds for a Messi goal or Mahomes touchdown, so comparing lines is key. When it comes to bet execution, managing your bankroll is essential. For example, if you’ve set aside $100 for betting this week, only bet a percentage on each individual bet to minimize risk—don’t go all-in on one matchup. Placing the bet is straightforward: you’ll select the player or team, enter your amount, and confirm the bet. Finally, always track your bets. Keep a log of the bets you’ve placed, what you bet on, the odds, and the results, so you can analyze trends and learn for future wagers.
After the game is over, it’s time for some post-bet analysis. Look at how the bet played out and what factors led to the outcome. Did Mahomes throw fewer touchdowns because of an injury to a key receiver, or did Messi fail to score due to a strong defensive setup? Evaluate whether your analysis was on point or if there were unexpected variables at play. This reflection is crucial for improving your future betting strategy. If your predictions were close but missed due to small factors, you may just need to adjust slightly. However, if your bet was way off, it might be time to reconsider how you’re analyzing data or trends. Over time, tweaking your approach based on past results will help sharpen your betting skills and boost your long-term success.
In conclusion, successfully betting on sports is all about using data and analysis to make informed decisions. Whether you’re focusing on a player like Messi, Mahomes, or Giannis, diving deep into their stats and using advanced metrics will give you a better understanding of where the real value lies. From spotting betting opportunities and understanding lines to choosing the right sportsbook and evaluating outcomes, each step is important to becoming a smarter bettor. Remember to track your bets, learn from each one, and adjust your strategy for future success.
